CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-09-17T13:38:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-09-17T13:38ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26962/-1
CME Note: Beautiful bright 3-part CME with the the source a slowly developing eruption of a large filament off the SW limb (~S40W90), with a faint opening of field lines seemingly behind the limb seen in AIA 171/193/304 indicating that the eruption might be more backsided (behind the limb). The filament eruption is best seen in its earlier stages in EUVI A 304 and in its later stages in GOES SUVI 304. The eruption is seen starting after 2023-09-17T10:45Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-21T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
:Issued: 2023 Sep 17 2101 UTC #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# A partial halo CME was detected by LASCO/C2 at 13:25 UTC on Sept 17th. The CME appears to be related to a slow filament eruption in the south-east quadrant. While we are awaiting more data preliminary analysis suggests that the CME will miss Earth. SIDC URSIGRAM 30918 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 18 Sep 2023, 1230UT SIDC FORECAST ...Coronal mass ejections: A partial halo CME was detected by LASCO/C2 at 13:25 UTC on 17 September. The source region of the CME is close to the SW limb, there are low chances of seeing a glancing blow at the Earth, or a shock at most, on 21 September.Lead Time: 72.80 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) on 2023-09-18T11:12Z
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